Rachel Whithers from Vox Australia thinks...
Labor has lost the “unloseable” election
The Labor Party was widely favored to win this election — so much so that popular gambling website Sportsbet opted to pay out to Labor-backers two days early, to the tune of $1.3 million (there was no such luck then or now for the man who placed a record-breaking $1 million bet on Labor on rival site Ladbrokes).
The Australian federal election has delivered a shocking result, with the right-wing Liberal-National government expected to return to power for a third term despite polls and odds having strongly favored the opposition Labor Party.
Votes are still being counted; although no side has a majority, Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s Liberal-National coalition (also known simply as the Coalition) is projected to win enough seats in the House of Representatives to form either a majority or minority government. In the case of a minority government, the Coalition would hold fewer than the required 76 seats needed for majority rule, and would have to negotiate with independents for supply and confidence.
At the time of publishing, the ABC has called 75 seats for the Coalition, 65 for Labor, and 6 for independents.
By Ruby Prosser Scully at newscientist.com has this to say
Some politicians and commentators have called for opinion polls to be scrapped following prime minister Scott Morrison’s shock win in the Australian federal election – the latest in a string of perceived polling failures in recent history.
For two years, polls put the left-leaning Labor party ahead of the more conservative Coalition. While the gap progressively shrank in the six months ahead of the election, the figures were consistently in favour of a Labor win. Of the 16 polls held since the election was called last month, all went in favour of the Labor party when responders were asked to pick from the leading two parties.
On the eve of the election, four key opinion polls had Bill Shorten’s Labor at a 51-49 over Morrison’s Coalition. Exit polls and betting sites also got it wrong, with Sportsbet set to pay out more at least A$5.21 million.
As the picture of a Coalition victory began to emerge on Saturday evening, ABC’s election analyst Antony Green called it “a bit of a spectacular failure of opinion polling”. Other politicians and commentators have since joined in the criticism.
Sarah Cameron and Ian McAllister at Conversation.com report that
Labor’s election loss was not a surprise if you take historical trends into account
Polls had predicted a narrow win for Labor in this election, so what explains the Coalition victory? Data from the Australian Election Study(AES), based on public opinion surveys conducted after every federal election from 1987 to 2016, provide some indications as to what long-term trends likely contributed to the result.
This includes rising voter disaffection with the major parties and an associated rise in support for independents and minor parties. Adding to the problems for Labor was Bill Shorten’s lack of popularity among voters when compared to other party leaders over the past three decades.
And not least, Labor’s focus on tax policies in the campaign was unwise given the long-term view among voters that the party is less reliable on economic issues.
The rise of independents and minor parties
Voters have become increasingly dissatisfied with democratic politics in Australia. Although the Coalition did win enough seats to form a majority government, voters have been gradually drifting away from the major parties in recent elections and casting protest votes for minor parties and independents in greater numbers.
In this election, the historically safe Liberal seat of Warringah in Sydney went to the centrist independent, Zali Steggall. Another centrist independent, Kerryn Phelps, came close to defeating Liberal Dave Sharma in Wentworth for the second time in the past year. Voters in these electorates may align with the Liberals on economic issues, but they are socially much more progressive than conservative elements within the party.
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